The Black Hole On The West Coast

California Association of Realtors (CAR) came out with the most recent sales numbers for the 3Q of 2007 and in case you didn't hear (or notice), sales are off 40% from a year ago. The media might portray a downturn of 5-7% as a big deal, but try 40% from last October. Most developers and public builders (in this market) are scrambling for anyone to qualify, and then they'll see which house they can afford to lose the least on, with the 'one buyer in tow'.

LOS ANGELES (Nov. 28) – Home sales decreased 40.2 percent in October in California compared with the same period a year ago, while the median price of an existing home fell 9.9 percent, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) reported today.

“Financing issues have dogged entry-level buyers since early 2007, but they spilled over into the middle and upper-tier markets in the last few months,” said C.A.R. President William E. Brown. “The decline in sales at the upper end of the market contributed to a significant decline in the statewide median price as even well-qualified borrowers had difficulty securing financing.”

Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled 265,030 in October at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations statewide. Statewide home resale activity decreased 40.2 percent from the 443,320 sales pace recorded in October 2006.

The statewide sales figure represents what the total number of homes sold during 2007 would be if sales maintained the October pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.

The median price of an existing, single-family detached home in California during October 2007 was $497,110, a 9.9 percent decrease from the revised $552,020 median for October 2006, C.A.R. reported. The October 2007 median price fell 6.4 percent compared with September’s $530,830 median price.

“We expect further weakness in sales over the next few months as the liquidity crisis plays out,” said C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. “Both the state and national economies remain fundamentally sound at this time, despite recent developments in the housing market. While there have been mixed signals in recent months, economic growth is expected to continue into 2008.”

Highlights of C.A.R.’s resale housing figures for October 2007:

• C.A.R.’s Unsold Inventory Index for existing, single-family detached homes in October 2007 was 16.3 months, compared with 6.4 months (revised) for the same period a year ago. The index indicates the number of months needed to deplete the supply of homes on the market at the current sales rate.
• Thirty-year fixed-mortgage interest rates averaged 6.38 percent during October 2007, compared with 6.36 percent in October 2006, according to Freddie Mac. Adjustable-mortgage interest rates averaged 5.68 percent in October 2007 compared with 5.56 percent in October 2006.
• The median number of days it took to sell a single-family home was 59.3 days in October 2007, compared with 56.5 days for the same period a year ago.

Regional MLS sales and price information is contained in the tables that accompany this press release. Regional sales data are not adjusted to account for seasonal factors that can influence home sales. The MLS median price and sales data for detached homes are generated from a survey of more than 90 associations of REALTORS® throughout the state. MLS median price and sales data for condominiums are based on a survey of more than 60 associations. The median price for both detached homes and condominiums represents closed escrow sales.

In a separate report covering more localized statistics generated by C.A.R. and DataQuick Information Systems, 13.9 percent, or 41 out of 296 cities and communities, showed an increase in their respective median home prices from a year ago. DataQuick statistics are based on county records data rather than MLS information. DataQuick Information Systems is a subsidiary of Vancouver-based MacDonald Dettwiler and Associates. (The top 10 lists are generated for incorporated cities with a minimum of 30 recorded sales in the month.)

Note: Large changes in local median home prices typically indicate both local home price appreciation, and often, large shifts in the composition of housing market activity. Some of the variations in median home prices for October may be exaggerated due to compositional changes in housing demand. The DataQuick tables listing median home prices in California cities and counties are accessible through C.A.R. Online .

• Statewide, the 10 cities and communities with the highest median home prices in California during October 2007 were: Newport Beach, $1,575,000; Santa Barbara, $1,275,000; Cupertino, $1,033,000; Danville, $1,017,500; Los Gatos, $1,005,000; San Carlos, $927,500; Redwood City, $912,000; San Ramon, $835,000; San Clemente, $832,500; and San Mateo, $829,500.
• Statewide, the 10 cities and communities with the greatest median home price increases in October 2007 compared with the same period a year ago were: Santa Barbara, 24.4 percent; Arcadia, 21.3 percent; Redwood City, 20.6 percent; Newport Beach, 18.4 percent; San Ramon, 14.4 percent; Cupertino, 11.7 percent; San Carlos, 9.5 percent; Redlands, 8.8 percent; Redondo Beach, 8.7 percent; and Sunnyvale, 7.6 percent.

Leading the way...® in California real estate for more than 100 years, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (www.car.org) is one of the largest state trade organizations in the United States, with about 200,000 members dedicated to the advancement of professionalism in real estate. C.A.R. is headquartered in Los Angeles.

October 2007 Regional Sales and Price Activity*
Regional and Condo Sales Data Not Seasonally Adjusted

October-07	Median Price	Percent Change in Price from Prior Month	Percent Change in Price from Prior Year	Percent Change in Sales from Prior Month	Percent Change in Sales from Prior Year
	Oct-07	Sep-07	Oct-06	Sep-07	Oct-06
Statewide
Calif. (sf)	$497,110	-6.4%	-9.9%	-2.4%	-40.2%
Calif. (condo)	$416,210	2.7%	-2.1%	-4.6%	-31.9%
Region
Central Valley	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
High Desert	$265,880	-2.2%	-19.1%	1.9%	-56.9%
Los Angeles	$533,070	-6.4%	-8.6%	-20.0%	-42.0%
Monterey Region	$714,550	-1.1%	1.7%	15.6%	-35.1%
Monterey County	$620,000	-10.1%	-5.3%	7.7%	-43.7%
Santa Cruz County	$735,000	3.2%	-2.5%	23.9%	-24.8%
Northern California	$373,790	-2.5%	-3.6%	20.5%	-16.8%
Northern Wine Country	$532,900	-3.4%	-9.4%	8.0%	-37.8%
Orange County	$673,770	0.0%	-1.1%	-11.3%	-41.7%
Palm Springs/Lower Desert	$323,440	-6.5%	-5.1%	16.4%	-30.1%
Riverside/San Bernardino	$344,370	-3.4%	-15.6%	15.6%	-34.4%
Sacramento	$309,360	-5.0%	-15.7%	9.1%	-30.5%
San Diego	$539,060	-3.9%	-6.2%	0.8%	-37.1%
San Francisco Bay	$810,490	3.3%	8.9%	9.0%	-41.5%
San Luis Obispo	$548,610	5.6%	-2.2%	-6.1%	1.6%
Santa Barbara County	$742,190	9.4%	-12.4%	1.0%	-29.5%
Santa Barbara South Coast	$1,325,000	-15.3%	18.8%	22.0%	-33.0%
North Santa Barbara County	$360,870	-1.9%	-18.5%	-22.2%	-23.6%
Santa Clara	$860,500	1.4%	11.0%	7.6%	-35.1%
Ventura	$650,570	-4.6%	-3.1%	-3.5%	-52.6%

na – not available

*Based on closed escrow sales of single‑family, detached homes only (no condos). Reported month‑to‑month changes in sales activity in October overstate actual changes because of the small size of individual regional samples. Movements in sales prices should not be interpreted as measuring changes in the cost of a standard home. Prices are influenced by changes in cost and changes in the characteristics and size of homes actually sold.

sf = single‑family, detached home
Source: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Median Prices By Region – Current Month vs. Year Ago

	Oct-07	Sep-07		Oct-06
Statewide
Calif. (sf)	$497,110	$530,830		$552,020	r
Calif. (condo)	$416,210	$405,360		$425,180	r
Region
Central Valley	NA	NA		$345,070	r
High Desert	$265,880	$271,940		$328,650
Los Angeles	$533,070	$569,390		$583,160
Monterey Region	$714,550	$722,500		$702,680
Monterey County	$620,000	$690,000		$655,000
Santa Cruz County	$735,000	$712,500		$754,000
Northern California	$373,790	$383,330		$387,560
Northern Wine Country	$532,900	$551,680		$588,330
Orange County	$673,770	$673,770		$681,340
Palm Springs/Lower Desert	$323,440	$346,080		$340,830
Riverside/San Bernardino	$344,370	$356,510		$408,170
Sacramento	$309,360	$325,550		$366,940	r
San Diego	$539,060	$560,840		$574,530
San Francisco Bay	$810,490	$784,220	r	$744,300	r
San Luis Obispo	$548,610	$519,740		$560,980
Santa Barbara County	$742,190	$678,570		$847,220	r
Santa Barbara South Coast	$1,325,000	$1,564,000	r	$1,115,000
North Santa Barbara County	$360,870	$367,860		$442,590
Santa Clara	$860,500	$848,950		$775,000
Ventura	$650,570	$681,820		$671,330

na - not available
r - revised
Source: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

8 Interesting News Stories

It's Thanksgiving 2007 and before the rush of the day, I sat down to catch up on some articles that I've archived over the past week. Here is the list of several interesting news articles I've been saving to review and comment on, given the busy last two weeks with clients:

1. Millionarie Household chart - per country (US is 5.5x over #2);
2. SIV Superfund has picked a top flight manager to handle the $75B fund;
3. Gov. Schwarzenegger works with Lenders to Help California Homeowner;
4. NAR releases 3Q housing results - As defaults increase, lenders pull back;
5. Liberty Dollars seized by FBI;
6. Preview for the Top 5 gadgets from CES 2008 - via Popular Mechanics;
7. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Crash - charts;
8. Six brilliant marketing campaigns - with videos;
   

Commercial Real Estate Values Fall 2.5%

For the 3Q of 2007, there was a decrease in the TBI of 2.5%. Since the 3Q of 2003, the TBI (The MIT/CRE CREDL Initiative has developed a Transactions-Based Index (TBI) of Institutional Commercial Property Investment Performance) has been steadily increasing for the past 4 years.

The MIT Real Estate Center analysis shows that
the drop may not only indicate the end of commercial real estate price increases which effectively doubled in the past 4 years, but it also may signal that weakness in the housing market is spilling over into commercial real estate. The last time we saw this large of a price decrease occurred when prices fell 3.9 percent following the terrorist attacks of 9/11, says the MIT center.

Commenting on the index for the third quarter of 2007, MIT center director David Geltner said in a statement, "The fall in our index is the first solid, quantitative evidence that the subprime mortgage debacle, which hit the broader capital markets in August, may be spreading to the commercial property markets."